Why we worry about nukes
“So long as anyone has nuclear weapons, others will want them. So long as anyone possesses nuclear weapons, they are bound, one day, to be used, by accident or miscalculation if not by deliberate design. And any such use would be catastrophic for our world as we know it."
Carl Rolf Ekéus, Swedish diplomat, representative to the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva
The issues
Total elimination of nuclear weapons is surely the goal of peace-loving people around the world but the decades-long efforts of citizens and the non-nuclear states have had limited success in persuading nuclear states to disarm.
The UN says the risk of nuclear weapons use is higher now than at any time since the cold war. Russia has threatened to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, China is said to be doubling its arsenal, some arms control treaties and agreements are languishing, and nuclear weapons are more destructive than ever before.
Our plan
- As a close ally of the US, Australia should be pressing for:·
- A universal commitment to no first use·
- A drastic reduction in weapons ready for immediate use·
- A reduction in the overall global stockpile to less than 2,000 weapons
- All weapons to be taken off high-alert (Taken from recent recommendations of Gareth Evans, former Foreign Minister, initiator of the Canberra Commission on the Elimination of Nuclear weapons)
The evidence
An estimated 3,844 of these were deployed with operational forces, 2,000 of them on high operational alert. The US has 4,477 and Russia 3,708 – 90% of the total number. US spent ~$US43.7 billion on nuclear weapons in 2022.
Globally, spending on nuclear weapons increased by $US82.9 billion.
“We are drifting into one of the most dangerous periods in human history,”
Dan Smith, director of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
The regions most likely to draw the US into conflict are the Korean Peninsula, Taiwan Strait, Eastern Europe and the Persian Gulf. North Korea is developing intercontinental ballistic missiles that can reach the US. Russia has suspended its New START Agreement, revoked the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty.
China is in the middle of a significant modernisation and its nuclear stockpile is expected to continue growing over the coming decade. Some projections suggest that it will deploy at least as many intercontinental ballistic missiles as either Russia or the USA in that period.
India and Pakistan appear to be increasing the size of their nuclear weapon inventories, and the UK has announced plans to increase its stockpile.
North Korea’s military nuclear program remains central to its national security strategy. It conducted more than 90 ballistic missile tests during 2022—the highest number it has ever in a single year.
Israel maintains its long-standing policy of nuclear ambiguity, leaving uncertainty about the number and characteristics of its nuclear weapons.
Nuclear weapons numbers have come down from highs of over 60,000, primarily due to the US and Russia dismantling retired warheads. However, both have extensive and expensive programs underway to replace and modernise their nuclear warheads, and their missile, aircraft and submarine delivery systems.
Today’s nuclear weapons are more advanced in design, technology, and destructive power. They are more precise and ten or more times more powerful than the early atomic bombs. They are also smaller, allowing integration into various delivery systems. Many have multiple warheads and some are designed for close targets like battlefields. This means they are at high risk of escalation from potential misinterpretation, miscalculation, or an unintended response from adversaries, all of which could lead to full-scale nuclear war.
See here for Australia’s longstanding position on nuclear weapons. The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons was initiated in Australia by ICAN and awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for its work globally. The treaty entered into force January 2021 and has been signed or ratified by 93 countries so far but not by the Australian Government.
None of the nuclear weapons states has signed the treaty. The Australian Democrats have been anti-nuclear from the beginning. We were strong opponents of nuclear testing and have always campaigned for nuclear disarmament.
In 1999 former Democrats Senator Lyn Allison's amendment to environment laws to ban nuclear power was successful and remains law today.
References:
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/nuclear-weapons-oppenheimer-won-t-make-difference-australia-can
https://www.icanw.org/the_treaty
https://disarmament.unoda.org/wmd/nuclear/tpnw/
https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/penny-wong/media-release/50th-anniversary-australias-ratification-treaty-non-proliferation-nuclear-weapons